Quantitative Edge

in Prediction Markets

Systematic strategies. AI-driven analysis. Persistent inefficiencies.

Prediction markets are among the most efficient forecasting mechanisms available—yet structural mispricings persist. We apply rigorous quantitative methods and AI-driven analysis to systematically identify these opportunities across multiple venues in real time.

Core Capabilities

A modular system designed for precision, adaptability, and scale.

AI-Driven Analysis

Advanced reasoning models that identify logical relationships and semantic dependencies across markets.

Structural Arbitrage

Detection of pricing inconsistencies within related market groups and cross-venue opportunities.

Probabilistic Modeling

Real-time probability estimation with Bayesian updates from market signals and external events.

Risk Framework

Systematic position sizing and portfolio-level constraints with continuous exposure monitoring.

Multi-Venue Infrastructure

Unified data pipeline across major prediction market platforms with low-latency ingestion.

Execution Layer

Signal validation, quality gating, and execution infrastructure with comprehensive monitoring.

System Overview

A streamlined pipeline from market data to actionable signals.

Ingest

Real-time data from major prediction market venues, normalized into a unified format.

Filter

Quality gates remove noise and low-confidence markets before analysis.

Analyze

AI-driven signal detection identifies structural mispricings and arbitrage opportunities.

Validate

Risk framework applies position constraints and validates signal quality.

Execute

Systematic execution with full observability and performance tracking.

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